Demography, economy and education in Tanzania

The report analyzes the key drivers of population growth, economic development, and education in Tanzania from 1975 to 2025, and provides insights into future trends.

The report has a special focus on higher education and research. The report discusses why economic development in the last quarter of the 20^th century in Tanzania was followed by rapid economic growth and poverty reduction in the period 2000-2012.

As opposed to much of Africa, Tanzania has maintained its economic growth per capita in recent years. It became a middle-income country in 2020. But growth has been driven by large capital-intensive infrastructure projects, creating few jobs, and having small effects on poverty.

In 2023, Tanzania had a total fertility rate of 4.6 children per woman and a population growth of almost 3 per cent.  Half of the population was below 17.2 years of age. Increasing land scarcity, a higher priority of education and of family planning could contribute to a demographic dividend, helping Tanzania to reach its goal of becoming an upper-middle-income country by 2050.

Tanzania is not in debt distress. However, moderate government revenues, large infrastructure projects, and increasing debt service have contributed to reducing the share of education in the budget. This, together with rapid growth in the number of students, has brought questions of quality to the forefront. Tanzania is focusing more on shorter skills-oriented studies and STEM. These are steps increasing employability of graduates.

Lack of stable electricity has been holding Tanzania back. The infrastructure now coming into place will therefore contribute to economic growth. There is also a need to shift expenditure towards education and to increase investment in labor and resource intensive activities to secure sustainable growth.