Evaluation Series of NORHED: Theory of Change and Evaluation Methods

This study is the first assignment in an evaluation series following the Norwegian Programme for Capacity Development in Higher Education and Research for Development (NORHED) from its beginning. In this assignment, the evaluation team has used existing research to develop a general theory of change for how NORHED as a programme can increase institutional capacity. This includes an evidence-based discussion of the programme logic, its underlying assumptions and the context within which the program operates.

Through a comparison of the general theory of change developed by the evaluation team and NORHED’s implicit theory of change, the evaluators find that the programme largely has the potential to achieve its objectives. However, the success of NORHED depends, in part, on system and university level enabling factors outside the programme’s control. Due to these uncertainties, the evaluation team recommends that baseline data should be obtained to ensure that the NORHED programme can be evaluated and plausibly attributed to the programme. This is crucial to ensure that future policy decisions regarding the programme are evidence-based.

The overall purpose of the evaluation series is to enable learning within the field of higher education and development, so that future investments can become more effective in building capacity as a contribution to development. The general theory of change will be tested in the upcoming evaluations of the programme. The next assignments include a baseline study of the current level of institutional capacity in higher education institutions and an evaluation of the selection mechanism for awarding funds.